In Africa and around the world, ongoing drought continues to parch vineyards, driving wine production downward. This downward trend is also evident from the analysis of the number of drinkers whose wallets are increasingly drained by soaring inflation.
Disrupted by droughts, heatwaves, fires, early frost, or rains causing floods and diseases, global wine production dropped by 10% in 2023, while consumption decreased by 3%, the International Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV) announced on Thursday.
Worldwide, vintners produced a total of 237 million hectoliters, marking their smallest harvest since 1961. The harvest particularly suffered in Italy (-23% to 38 million hectoliters) and Spain (-21% to 28 million hectoliters), while it slightly increased in France ( 4% to 48 million hectoliters), making it by far the leading wine producer globally.
The OIV had already anticipated a drop in production in a preliminary estimate last November, albeit to a lesser extent (between 241.7 and 246.6 million hectoliters). This sharp decline is a direct consequence of "extreme environmental conditions" affecting both the northern and southern hemispheres, OIV director John Barker told reporters.
The harvest thus plummeted by 11% in Chile, 26% in Australia, and 10% in South Africa, the three major producers in the southern hemisphere. As the harvest there wraps up, production in this area is expected to rebound by 5% in 2024, according to OIV's initial estimates.
Inflation: Drinkers bear the brunt
Among consumers, consumption last year fell by 3% to 221 million hectoliters, its lowest level since 1996, confirming a downward trend since 2018 (with a rebound in 2021 due to the lifting of major Covid-related restrictions). This trend is partly due to inflation, which has increased production costs and thus the price of a bottle or box of wine, while also reducing consumers' purchasing power.
Consumption also dropped significantly in China (-25%), affected by an economic slowdown. The decreased demand is also "motivated by demographic changes and lifestyle shifts," John Barker acknowledged.
"But it is difficult to determine precisely to what extent the recent decline in consumption reflects short- or long-term market conditions," he added.
The Portuguese, the French, and the Italians remain, per capita, the biggest consumers. Wine exports, meanwhile, declined by 6% in volume to their lowest level since 2010, with fewer bottles, boxes, or bulk shipments leaving Chile, South Africa, or France.
According to the OIV, some buyers may have been deterred by the average export price, which has risen to 3.62 euros per liter, a record, and 29% more than in 2020.
The area dedicated to vineyards, for wine or table grape production, has decreased for the third consecutive year, by 0.5% in 2023 to 7.2 million hectares. In France, where the government has subsidized distillation and uprooting programs to address overproduction in some regions, it decreased by 0.4%.
The area has, however, increased by 3% in India, which has entered the top 10 of the world's largest vineyards. The production drop in Italy - to its lowest level since 1950 - should not lead to a massive abandonment of vineyard hectares, according to John Barker. Between rains promoting the appearance of mildew in central and southern regions, hail, and floods, the decline "has clearly been linked to weather conditions," and thus normally temporary, he said.
The scourges that have affected the vine this year are very diverse, and the influence of climate change is not established in all cases. Phenomena such as the artificialization of soils in Italy, for example, could have exacerbated the consequences of the rains. Nonetheless, "the greatest current challenge for the sector is climate change," which "severely affects the vine, a perennial plant often grown in vulnerable areas," John Barker estimated.
