The World Bank predicts that global economic growth will stabilize in 2024 at a relatively low level. In Africa, the outlook varies significantly with important challenges depending on the region.
The latest edition of the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report highlights both the challenges, opportunities, and risks for 2024 and beyond. Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to be 3.5% in 2024, a slight increase from 3% in 2023. This growth remains modest due to several factors, including ongoing conflicts, political uncertainties, and the impacts of climate change. Forecasts for 2025 and 2026 indicate an average growth of 4%, representing gradual improvement but still below pre-pandemic levels.
Overall, low-income countries in the region are expected to see more dynamic growth, from 3.8% in 2023 to 5% in 2024. This increase is mainly due to a recovery in the mining and agricultural sectors as well as targeted public investments. However, growth prospects for 2024 have been revised downward in 75% of these countries compared to the January forecasts, highlighting the fragility of these economies in the face of external shocks.
Risks and Challenges Ahead
In oil-importing countries, a tightening of global financial conditions could lead to capital outflows and currency depreciation. African economies also remain exposed to severe weather events induced by climate change and other types of natural disasters, thereby increasing the risks of economic deterioration.
These dynamics reveal an Africa at a crossroads. They highlight the need to strengthen economic resilience with development that must necessarily be inclusive. While some countries, including Morocco, benefit from reforms and strategic investments, others like Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Gabon must navigate troubled waters, marked by both geopolitical uncertainties and significant economic challenges.
