Nearly 500,000 additional Malawians could fall into poverty in 2027 due to agricultural losses caused by El Niño and soaring fertilizer prices, according to an analysis by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
The study estimates that 495,000 people could join the 17.3 million Malawians already living below the international poverty line of $3 a day. A further rise in regional maize prices, combined with an expected tripling of imports, could also put an additional five million people at risk of undernourishment.
The impact could also weigh heavily on the national economy. The combination of the climate shock and the repercussions of the situation in the Middle East could lead to an average 2.9% contraction in Malawi’s gross domestic product (GDP). Losses in the agricultural sector could reach 8.1%, while domestic fertilizer prices could rise to 61% above pre-war levels.
Against this backdrop, real household spending could fall by an average of 4.2%, while prices for locally produced agricultural goods are expected to continue rising.
These prospects further complicate Malawi’s ambition to achieve middle-income status by 2030. That goal is already being undermined by weak economic growth and the impact of climate shocks, which UNICEF estimates cause annual losses equivalent to 1.7% of GDP.
