Economic growth in the sub-Saharan African countries financed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is expected to slow in 2026.
According to the Regional Economic Prospects report published on June 3 by the EBRD, the six African countries where the institution operates — Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, and Senegal — are projected to record average growth of 4.7% in 2026, down from 5.2% in 2025.
This slowdown is attributed to several factors, including rising energy prices, disruptions to global trade linked to the conflict in the Middle East, and weak investment in Senegal. A modest recovery is expected in 2027, with average growth projected at 4.8%, supported by investment and extractive industries.
Benin Remains the Top Performer
Benin is expected to remain the most dynamic economy in the group, with growth forecast at 7% in 2026, following 8.1% in 2025. The country’s performance is driven by strong activity in construction, agriculture, manufacturing, and services.
Improved public finances and lower inflation are also strengthening the outlook, although security challenges in the northern border regions remain a concern.
Côte d’Ivoire Maintains Strong Momentum
Côte d’Ivoire’s growth is expected to reach 6.1% in 2026 before rising to 6.5% in 2027. The economy continues to benefit from robust agricultural output, a dynamic construction sector, and strong exports.
Fiscal mobilization efforts have helped reduce the budget deficit to the regional threshold set by the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), while inflation remains broadly under control.
Senegal Faces a Sharp Slowdown
Senegal is expected to experience the most significant deceleration. After growing by 6.7% in 2025, driven by production from the Sangomar oil field, economic growth is forecast to slow to 2.5% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027.
While hydrocarbon exports have helped reduce external and fiscal deficits, high public debt levels and concerns about public finances continue to weigh on the outlook. The recent downgrade of Senegal’s sovereign credit rating by Standard & Poor’s reflects these concerns.
Ghana, Kenya, and Nigeria: Contrasting Paths
In Ghana, growth is expected to slow to 5% in both 2026 and 2027, after reaching 6% in 2025. Persistent challenges in the cocoa sector and global uncertainties are likely to weigh on economic activity, despite the positive effects of lower inflation and a more stable cedi.
Kenya is expected to maintain growth of 4.6% in 2026, with a slight acceleration to 4.9% in 2027. The services, construction, and mining sectors are expected to continue supporting economic activity.
In Nigeria, growth is projected at 4.1% in 2026, compared with 4% the previous year. The resilience of non-oil sectors and stable hydrocarbon production are supporting the outlook, although inflation and electoral uncertainties remain significant risks.
According to the EBRD, these economies remain broadly resilient but continue to face exposure to geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, and fiscal pressures that could hinder growth momentum in the coming years.
