Kenya’s economy is expected to grow by 4.6% in 2026, maintaining a relatively stable but still moderate pace in light of the challenges the country continues to face, according to the latest forecasts from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
The institution projects a gradual acceleration of economic activity to 4.9% in 2027, driven primarily by the strong performance of the construction, services, and mining sectors.
Despite this positive momentum, growth continues to be constrained by the limited performance of agriculture and manufacturing, two key sectors that have struggled to regain a stronger pace of development.
On the inflation front, consumer prices rose slightly, with inflation reaching 4.4% in March 2026. The EBRD attributes this increase to higher global oil prices, which have led to rising transportation and production costs.
However, the institution notes that the relative stability of the Kenyan shilling has helped mitigate the impact of imported inflationary pressures and maintain a degree of macroeconomic stability.
Despite these favorable factors, Kenya’s economic outlook remains subject to uncertainty. The EBRD warns of risks stemming from persistently high energy costs and delays in finalizing a new cooperation program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
According to the institution, these factors could weigh on the country’s economic performance and slow efforts to achieve fiscal consolidation and stimulate investment.