Africa’s economic growth is expected to experience a slight slowdown in 2026 before regaining momentum the following year. This is according to the 2026 African Economic Outlook report published by the African Development Bank (AfDB) during its Annual Meetings held in Brazzaville.
According to the pan-African institution’s forecasts, Africa’s GDP growth is expected to reach 4.2% in 2026, down slightly from the higher level anticipated in 2025, before rising again to 4.4% in 2027. The AfDB notes, however, that these projections are based on the assumption that current global economic shocks will be temporary, with a gradual return to stability after a few months of turbulence.
The institution warns that if the current disruptions in the global economy persist for three to six months, growth could be more significantly affected, falling to 4.0% in 2026. Such a scenario would weigh on economic activity, trade flows, and investment prospects across the continent.
On the fiscal front, the AfDB projects an average budget deficit of 4.8% of GDP in 2026, easing slightly to 4.6% in 2027. This outlook could nevertheless be influenced by developments in international energy prices. African countries that are net oil exporters could benefit from higher budget revenues if crude oil prices continue to rise.
Inflation, which remains one of the continent’s main economic challenges, is expected to continue declining. After reaching 13.7% in 2025, it is projected to fall to 10.4% in 2026 and 8.9% in 2027. The AfDB attributes this improvement to stronger agricultural production and the effects of restrictive monetary policies implemented in several African countries.
Despite this progress, price levels are expected to remain high in some economies. Nevertheless, 26 African countriesare projected to record inflation rates below 5% by 2026, signaling a gradual stabilization of the macroeconomic environment.
Regarding living standards, real GDP per capita growth is expected to slow slightly to 1.9% in 2026 before increasing to 2.2% in 2027. However, the AfDB considers this pace insufficient to generate truly inclusive growth, estimating that a minimum annual growth rate of 3.5% per capita is needed to significantly improve living conditions.
Overall, the report highlights the resilience of African economies in the face of global uncertainties while emphasizing the need to accelerate structural reforms to sustain growth, contain inflation, and achieve lasting improvements in the well-being of African populations.