Thirteen African countries are expected to record growth of more than 6% in 2026, in a context marked by easing inflation, according to The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) in a report published at the end of December.
Entitled "Africa Outlook 2026: Growth and Opportunity Amid Geopolitical Shifts”, the report specifies that these countries are mainly located in the western sub-region (Senegal, Guinea, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Niger) and the eastern sub-region (Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda). Only two of them are outside these sub-regions, namely Libya (North Africa) and Mozambique (Southern Africa).
East Africa and West Africa are also expected to remain the fastest-growing sub-regions in 2026. More broadly, growth across the continent’s economies will be driven by a set of interdependent structural factors, including infrastructure development, rapid urbanization, accelerated digital transformation, sustained inflows of foreign direct investment, the expansion of regional markets, and deeper integration into global value chains.
In West Africa, these drivers will be complemented by major investment projects in hydrocarbons, renewable energy, and mining, which will strengthen growth momentum in the medium term.
South Africa, for its part, is expected to post relatively modest growth in 2026 (between 1.5% and 3%). Economic activity in the Rainbow Nation will be constrained by persistently high interest rates, as well as the impact of 30% U.S. tariffs on its exports, which will weigh on both export performance and investment spending. Base effects, however, should support a slight acceleration in growth in the second half of 2026, as the impact of the tariffs begins to ease compared with late 2025.
The report also highlights that the continent will continue to face challenges in stabilizing its debt burden, which has reached critical levels in several economies over the past decade. Many countries remain exposed to adverse fluctuations in global financing conditions, commodity prices, and exchange rates, and there is little indication that the international community is willing or able to coordinate an effective response to Africa’s excessive debt.
The risk of worsening and more widespread over-indebtedness in 2026 is increasing, which will require new fiscal and structural reforms. These are likely to take the form of stricter fiscal discipline, austerity, and policies aimed at improving the investment climate, greater liberalization of trade and exchange-rate regimes, and an acceleration of privatization programs. Economies such as Ethiopia, Mozambique, Tunisia, and Zambia are among those that could face particularly acute financial pressures in 2026.