The World Bank is far from optimistic about Gabon’s economy for the 2025–2027 period.
In its latest economic update, the institution projects average growth of 2.4% per year, compared with 2.9% expected in 2024, supported by a strong oil sector and public investment.
The slowdown comes mainly from oil. As Gabon’s oil fields reach maturity, production is expected to decline for three consecutive years: -2.1% in 2025, -5.8% in 2026, and -2.0% in 2027. This drop is compounded by unfavorable global price forecasts, with crude expected to average $60 per barrel over the period, compared with $80 in 2024. The result: falling public revenues and budget deficits that could reach 5% of GDP, further complicating the management of an already heavy debt burden.
In response to this decline, Libreville is banking on other resources: manganese, timber, iron, and agriculture. The Baniaka iron deposit, scheduled to start production in 2026, and the Belinga project are among the strategic levers of diversification. However, these sectors remain weakened by a sluggish international context—particularly weak Chinese demand—and by persistent domestic constraints: power outages, rail disruptions, and inadequate road infrastructure.
To improve its outlook, the country is urged to speed up reforms. The World Bank stresses the need for strict fiscal consolidation, stronger public governance, and targeted investments in energy and transport to stimulate the private sector.
In a calmer political climate, marked by the arrival of a newly elected government, the institution believes that investor confidence could gradually be restored.