Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to reach 3.7% in 2025 and average 4.2% over 2026–2027, according to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report.
These forecasts have been revised downward by 0.4 percentage points for 2025 and 0.2 points for 2026 due to worsening global conditions, marked by rising trade barriers, increasing political uncertainty, and a loss of confidence.
They are also "impacted by the effects of these global shocks, notably the decline in demand for commodities,” the World Bank notes.
The report highlights that the region's growth prospects hinge on the gradual decline of interest rates, which is expected to support consumption and investment.
However, high public debt and elevated borrowing costs necessitate continued fiscal consolidation, which will limit domestic demand. Public finances are expected to improve, with the primary budget deficit nearing balance in 2024 due to strict fiscal management and deficit reduction in countries less reliant on natural resources.
The report also outlines several risks threatening the growth outlook, including:
Policy uncertainty and potentially adverse trade decisions
A sharper-than-expected slowdown in China
The escalation of global geopolitical tensions
Rising political instability and the continuation of violent conflicts
An intensification of the conflict in Sudan, in particular, could lead to higher food prices in some parts of Sub-Saharan Africa.
"Despite the slowdown in growth across emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) globally, Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the two regions expected to experience an acceleration in growth during the forecast period,” the World Bank points out, as reported by Ecofin Agency.
The World Bank’s medium-term outlook remains partially aligned with that of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which recently lowered its own forecasts, projecting 3.8% growth in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026 for Sub-Saharan Africa.