In a deep conversation at the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research (ECSSR) on December 5, Jason Isaacson, Chief Policy and Political Affairs Officer at the American Jewish Committee (AJC), offered insights on the geopolitical challenges facing the Middle East and the potential strategies for stability under the incoming U.S. administration. The discussion, attended by prominent figures such as diplomat Mark Sievers, delved into pivotal topics, including the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, the role of the Palestinian Authority, and the future of regional normalization initiatives.
Isaacson provided a deep assessment of the Israel-Hamas conflict, emphasizing the enduring trauma caused by the October 7th attacks. "The Israeli public’s sentiment is clear: enough is enough," he noted, underscoring Israel’s resolve to eliminate the Hamas threat. However, he acknowledged the difficulty in defining when the security objectives would be deemed sufficient for Israel to withdraw its forces from Gaza.
He further highlighted the challenges for both the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration in navigating the "day after” the conflict. While there is no appetite for U.S. troops on the ground in Gaza, Isaacson proposed a collaborative civil administration involving the Palestinian Authority and regional partners like the UAE to ensure governance and prevent a resurgence of extremism. "We must find mechanisms to stabilize Gaza while paving the way for reconstruction and long-term peace," he stressed.
Building a Post-Conflict Framework
Isaacson emphasized the inevitability of a political resolution for the Palestinian people. He advocated for the Palestinian Authority’s involvement, albeit restructured with moderate and pragmatic leadership. He pointed to international proposals, such as those from the Wilson Center and Atlantic Council, which outline "day after” frameworks focusing on governance, law enforcement, and infrastructure rebuilding in Gaza.
"This is their land as much as it’s our land,” he remarked, urging both Israelis and Palestinians to recognize each other’s indigenous rights. He expressed hope that fostering mutual recognition would build trust and change the prevailing narratives of hostility. However, he remained pragmatic, admitting that Palestinian statehood within the next few years is unlikely without meeting specific security and governance conditions.
The conversation also touched on the Abraham Accords and their potential expansion. Isaacson noted that normalization agreements with countries like the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco have demonstrated the benefits of engagement over isolation. He argued that building stronger ties with moderate Arab states could influence Palestinian leadership toward pragmatic negotiations and bolster Israel’s security.
"Israel can move forward with greater normalization and acceptance,” Isaacson stated, emphasizing the need for Israel to reciprocate by taking steps toward resolving the Palestinian issue. He revealed that Saudi officials have signaled their expectation for Israel to acknowledge the concept of Palestinian statehood as a prerequisite for further normalization.
"Israel wants to live in peace with all its neighbors”
Addressing the Israel-Iran standoff, Isaacson outlined possible scenarios under the Trump administration. While expecting a continuation of maximum pressure policies, he suggested that a deal addressing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, missile programs, and support for proxies could be acceptable to Israel. However, he cautioned against overreliance on diplomatic solutions, given Iran’s history of circumvention.
Isaacson credited Israel’s innovative strategies in weakening Iranian proxies but called for stronger regional acknowledgment of these efforts. "Israel’s actions benefit not just its security but the broader stability of the Middle East,” he asserted.
The Role of U.S. Leadership
The United States, Isaacson argued, has a vital role in facilitating dialogue and building frameworks for peace. He emphasized the importance of leveraging diplomatic relationships to encourage pragmatic leadership and policies in both Israel and Palestine. While ruling out American military involvement in Gaza, he suggested that the U.S. could support oversight mechanisms and economic investments to rebuild trust and infrastructure.
Despite the numerous challenges, Isaacson remained cautiously optimistic. He envisioned a Middle East where shared security and economic interests could bridge divides. "Engagement is the only way forward,” he concluded, urging regional leaders to prioritize cooperation and integration.
The discussion underscored the intricate interplay of geopolitics, security, and diplomacy in shaping the future of the Middle East. As the region navigates these complexities, Isaacson’s insights offer a roadmap for addressing conflicts and fostering stability through strategic collaboration.