Africa could face severe economic pressures in 2026 as global prices for food, energy and commodities continue to rise.
According to the latest edition of the World Bank Group’s Commodity Markets Outlook, published on October 28, 2026, global commodity prices are expected to increase by 23% this year, amid geopolitical tensions and climate-related disruptions.
This development poses new threats to the purchasing power of African households, as well as to government budgets, particularly in countries heavily dependent on energy and food imports.
After three years of relative stability, energy prices are projected to rise by 32% in 2026. Brent crude oil prices could reach an annual average of $91 per barrel, driven in particular by tensions in the Middle East and low global oil inventories.
The outlook for food markets is equally concerning. Prices of major food commodities are expected to increase by 10% in 2026, followed by a further 7% rise in 2027. This trend is making access to food increasingly difficult for many African households.
In sub-Saharan Africa, disruptions to grain supply chains, a 14% increase in fertilizer prices and the impact of the El Niño climate phenomenon on harvests are further exacerbating pressures on food markets.
Debt and Poverty: Vulnerable Countries Under Pressure
This renewed surge in prices threatens to deepen poverty and further undermine the livelihoods of the most vulnerable populations. Rising food and energy costs are simultaneously eroding household purchasing power and complicating governments’ economic policymaking.
"The priority must be to protect the poorest and support low-income countries already struggling with heavy debt burdens,” said Ayhan Kose, Deputy Chief Economist at the World Bank.
For African countries that are net importers of oil and food, rising commodity prices represent an additional challenge. They further constrain fiscal space, already limited by external debt burdens and the depreciation of certain national currencies.
Mining Countries Face Favorable Prospects
However, the impact of these developments will not be the same across all African economies. Rising investment in renewable energy, digital infrastructure and data centers is supporting industrial metal prices, which are expected to increase by 25% in 2026. Precious metals, meanwhile, could record a 40% rise.
This environment could benefit resource-rich countries, particularly the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea and South Africa. Higher commodity prices could boost their export earnings and tax revenues. Nevertheless, these gains may prove insufficient to offset the effects of inflation on local populations.
World Bank Mobilizes Financing
In response to these risks, the World Bank has announced the mobilization of between $50 billion and $60 billion through its existing financing instruments. This package includes approximately $25 billion in prearranged financing aimed at supporting social protection programs, government budgets and agricultural operations.
The institution has also warned of a potential deterioration in the situation, outlining a scenario in which oil prices could reach $105 per barrel in 2027.
Against this backdrop, the renewed surge in commodity prices has brought the issues of food sovereignty and energy security in Africa back to the forefront.
For the continent’s economies, the challenge now lies in strengthening domestic production capacities, diversifying supply sources and reducing their exposure to shocks in international markets.