The World Bank has revised upward its growth forecast for Kenya in 2026. In its latest economic report on the country, the institution now expects GDP growth of 4.6%, compared with the 4.3% estimated in July.
This 0.3 percentage point upward revision is mainly attributed to stronger economic activity in the first half of 2026. During this period, real GDP grew by 5.2%, compared with 4.9% in the same period of the previous year.
Industry and services were the main drivers of this performance, offsetting the slowdown observed in the agricultural sector.
Despite this acceleration at the beginning of the year, the World Bank forecasts annual growth of 4.6%, the same level recorded in 2025.
However, the institution remains cautious about the country's economic outlook. It identifies several risk factors, including external shocks, pressures on public finances, and climate-related uncertainties.
A slowdown in the global or regional economy could particularly affect Kenyan exports, reduce tourism revenues, and hamper foreign investment.
The report also warns of a possible escalation of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. Such developments could lead to a surge in fuel prices and higher maritime transport costs, with repercussions for the Kenyan economy.