East African economies are expected to follow contrasting trajectories in 2026 and 2027, with strong growth prospects alongside persistent inflationary pressures.
According to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), published during the Annual Meetings of the institution and the World Bank in Bangkok, Thailand, Uganda is expected to record the strongest economic growth in the East African Community in 2027.
For 2026, the IMF forecasts growth of 10.5% in South Sudan, 7.4% in Rwanda, and 6.2% in Uganda. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is expected to grow by 5.2%, ahead of Kenya, projected at 4.5%, and Burundi, at 3.6%. Somalia is expected to record more modest growth of 2.3%.
In 2027, Uganda’s economy is expected to accelerate significantly, with projected growth of 9.9%, compared with 6.2% in 2026. According to IMF projections, this increase would place the country at the forefront of the region’s economies.
However, the outlook remains marked by significant disparities in inflation. In 2026, inflation is expected to reach 27.6% in South Sudan, the highest level among the countries mentioned, compared with 12.3% in Rwanda and 10.5% in Burundi. It is expected to be more moderate in Kenya, at 6%, the DRC, at 4.3%, and Uganda, at 4.2%.
In Ethiopia, the IMF forecasts growth of 9.2% in 2026, followed by 7.8% in 2027. Inflation, meanwhile, is expected to slow to 11.7% in 2026, compared with 16% in 2025.
Across sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth is expected to remain at 4.5% in both 2026 and 2027. Nevertheless, the IMF highlights persistent disparities among the region’s economies, linked in particular to the scope for economic policy action, commodity market volatility, climate shocks, and conditions for accessing external financing.