The World Bank has revised upward its growth forecasts for Nigeria.
According to its latest semiannual report on the country's economy, gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 4.3% in 2026, before reaching an average growth rate of 4.4% over the 2026–2028 period.
Last January, the institution had lowered its 2026 growth forecast from 4.4% to 4.1%, citing the expected repercussions of the conflict in the Middle East. This latest upward revision reflects an improvement in Nigeria's macroeconomic conditions and the relatively limited impact of the conflict on Africa's most populous economy.
The country's economic momentum remains strong. In the first half of 2026, growth reached 4.2%, driven mainly by the services and agricultural sectors, according to the report cited by local media.
To sustain this momentum, the World Bank is urging Nigerian authorities to increase investment in infrastructure, human capital, improvements to the business environment and security. These factors are considered essential to fostering stronger, more sustainable and inclusive economic growth.
On the external front, rising global oil prices have helped strengthen the country's external accounts. The current account surplus reached $12 billion in the first half of 2026, equivalent to approximately 7% of GDP, compared with $8.6 billion, or 6.7% of GDP, during the same period in 2025.
Higher oil revenues have also supported public finances. The fiscal deficit narrowed to 4% of GDP in the first half of 2026, down from 5% a year earlier.
However, the World Bank expects the fiscal balance to deteriorate over the full year. Driven by an anticipated increase in spending during the second half, the deficit is projected to reach 3.5% of GDP in 2026, compared with 3.1% in 2025. This projection exceeds the 2.9% forecast issued last April.
On the inflation front, the outlook is also improving. After remaining at around 15.5% since February 2026, inflation is expected to gradually ease to 12% by 2028, according to the institution's estimates.
