Rwanda could connect an additional 1.07 million unique subscribers to mobile internet by 2031, provided it implements reforms aimed at making smartphones more affordable and boosting digital usage. This is one of the main prospects presented by the GSMA in a report published on Thursday, September 17.

According to the organization, the proposed measures could enable the number of unique mobile internet subscribers to exceed by 22.1% the level that would be reached without new interventions. This ambition comes as Rwanda already has extensive mobile coverage.

In 2025, 4G covered 96% of the population, while 3G coverage reached 99%. Yet only 21% of Rwandans were unique mobile internet subscribers.

According to the GSMA, this gap between coverage and usage is mainly explained by the cost of smartphones, a lack of digital skills and the shortage of content and services tailored to the needs of rural populations and low-income households.

Smartphones: Cost Remains the Main Barrier

The first priority identified by the GSMA concerns the price of smartphones. The organization recommends expanding financing mechanisms that enable low-income households and rural populations to purchase these devices.

It also recommends assessing the impact of taxation on prices and adopting targeted reductions when taxes constitute a barrier to access.

The issue is all the more sensitive because Rwanda reinstated an 18% VAT on smartphones in July 2025, after fifteen years of exemption.

In a previous study, the GSMA estimated that VAT, customs duties and excise taxes together represented a tax burden equivalent to around 35% of the retail price of a smartphone. The organization estimated at the time that this taxation could result in 538,000 fewer unique mobile subscribers in 2029 compared with a scenario without tax changes.

Digital Skills and Local Content

To accelerate adoption, access to devices must be accompanied by stronger digital skills. The GSMA therefore recommends expanding training, particularly in rural communities, with an approach focused on practical uses.

The organization also calls for the development of more content and applications in Kinyarwanda, as well as digital services addressing practical needs in health, agriculture, financial services and public administration.

The digital transition will also need to take users of basic mobile phones into account. The GSMA recommends keeping certain essential services accessible on these devices as more advanced services shift to mobile broadband.

Energy Costs, Another Challenge

Digital development also requires high-performing but financially sustainable networks. The GSMA stresses the need to balance service quality, operator investment and affordable prices.

Among the cost factors, the organization notably highlights the price of electricity, which increases operators’ operating expenses and can put pressure on the prices paid by consumers.

The expected economic benefits could nevertheless be significant. According to GSMA projections, expanded access to mobile internet and the additional economic activity generated by digital services could produce 218 billion Rwandan francs in net fiscal benefits per year, equivalent to around $148 million, by 2031.

The End of 3G Accelerates the Transformation

Rwanda’s technological timetable increases the urgency of these reforms. The country plans to shut down 3G on June 30, 2027, before a planned phase-out of 2G in December 2028.

This migration to newer networks requires populations to have access to compatible and affordable devices. It also raises the question of maintaining essential services for people who do not yet have a smartphone.

Rwanda therefore faces a dual challenge: turning already high network coverage into widespread mobile internet adoption and ensuring that this transition remains accessible to the lowest-income populations.