Mozambique could face a sharp deterioration in food security over the coming months. According to an official analysis, nearly 1.84 million people could face acute food insecurity between October 2026 and March 2027, due to the combined impact of armed conflict, climate shocks and declining purchasing power.
The food security situation in Mozambique could deteriorate significantly.
Around 1.84 million people could require urgent assistance by March 2027, representing a 55% increase compared with the 1.19 million people currently facing acute food insecurity.
This projection is included in an analysis coordinated by the Technical Secretariat for Food and Nutrition Security (SETSAN), covering the period from October 2026 to March 2027.
More People Facing Emergency Conditions
The deterioration is not expected to be limited to the number of people affected. The number of people facing the most severe conditions is also projected to rise sharply.
According to the report, around 254,000 people could fall into Phase 4, classified as an emergency situation, compared with 81,000 currently.
Around 1.58 million people are expected to be in Phase 3, corresponding to a crisis situation. This deterioration is expected during the lean season, which generally runs from October to March.
During this period, household food reserves gradually decline as families wait for the next harvest.
Northern Mozambique Particularly Exposed
The analysis covers 46 districts affected by various shocks recorded between October 2025 and June 2026.
These include flooding, the impact of Cyclone Gezani and the ongoing armed conflict in Cabo Delgado province.
Areas affected by violence in Cabo Delgado are expected to be particularly hard hit, along with parts of Nampula. In central and southern Mozambique, people living in arid and semi-arid areas are also considered highly vulnerable to climate-related disruptions.
The Threat of El Niño
In addition to security pressures, Mozambique also faces climate risks. The report estimates an 89% probability of El Niño developing by January 2027.
The phenomenon could lead to below-average rainfall in central and southern Mozambique, higher temperatures and deteriorating agricultural conditions.
Lower agricultural production could, in turn, reduce food availability and make access to basic necessities even more difficult for households.
The situation could be further aggravated by rising fuel prices, inflation, declining purchasing power and higher food costs.
Maize Prices Soar
Pressure is already visible in some markets.
In May, maize prices in southern Mozambique were 25% to 60% above their five-year average. Rice prices were also 20% to 40% above their historical average.
At the same time, annual inflation rose from 4.4% in April to 7.5% in June 2026, reaching its highest level since May 2023.
This combination of high prices and pressure on household incomes risks further reducing the ability of the most vulnerable families to access sufficient food.
Children and Pregnant Women on the Front Line
The food crisis could also have serious nutritional consequences. Over the next 12 months, around 103,617 children aged between 6 and 59 months could suffer from acute malnutrition.