The Congolese economy is expected to accelerate significantly in 2027. According to the 2026 Congolese Economic Outlook, published on September 10, growth could reach 6.9%, compared with 5.5% expected this year. This particularly optimistic forecast differs sharply from that of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which projects growth of only 3.2%.
The Congolese government expects economic activity to accelerate significantly in 2027.
Growth is projected to reach 6.9%, following an estimated 5.5% expansion in 2026. According to the 2026 Congolese Economic Outlook, this performance would be driven by the “combined momentum of the oil and non-oil sectors.”
Brazzaville’s projection, however, differs considerably from that of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which forecasts growth of 3.2% for the Congolese economy.
Oil Takes the Lead
The oil sector is expected to play a central role in this acceleration. Growth in the sector is projected at 8% in 2027, up from 5.6% in 2026. This increase is expected to be driven in particular by the start of production at new fields and increased output from Moho Nord and Banga Kayo.
The continuation of the Moho Infills project, along with Perenco’s efforts to revive several mature fields, should also support production. Investments by TotalEnergies and ENI are likewise expected to contribute to the sector’s momentum.
Non-Oil Sector Gains Ground
The government is also banking on sustained growth in the non-oil sector, which is expected to expand by 5.4% in 2027, 0.7 percentage points higher than in 2026.
Agriculture is projected to grow by 6.7%, while the secondary sector could expand by 8.1%.
The food industry, construction, and the manufacturing of non-metallic mineral products are expected to support this performance. Growth in the latter segment is projected to reach 18.1%.
Services are also expected to contribute to the acceleration in economic activity, with projected growth of 6.1%, driven particularly by banking and insurance, telecommunications, and other market services.
Reforms and Investment at the Heart of the Strategy
According to the authorities, achieving these objectives will depend on several factors: consolidating hydrocarbon production, continuing economic reforms, and mobilizing both public and private investment.
The government plans in particular to strengthen investment in the non-oil sector in order to continue projects included in the 2022–2026 National Development Plan (NDP).
This strategy is part of the new national development agenda entitled “Accelerating the March Towards Development,”which focuses on economic diversification, improved governance, structural transformation, and the promotion of more inclusive and sustainable growth.
Uncertainties Remain
The authorities’ optimism comes, however, against an international backdrop still marked by geopolitical tensions that could significantly affect global oil prices.
At the domestic level, discussions are also continuing between the government and the IMF to establish a new framework for cooperation.
Inflation is another area of concern. It is expected to average 3.7% in 2027, compared with 3.4% in 2026, thereby exceeding the regional convergence threshold.
This pressure is expected to be driven in particular by rising food prices, higher transport and logistics costs, and more expensive imported goods.
With higher oil production, expected momentum in the non-oil sector, and continued reforms, Brazzaville is therefore setting ambitious targets for 2027. However, the considerable gap between the government’s projections and those of the IMF highlights the uncertainties that still surround the actual pace of the economic recovery.
